We have been told and told that if we live Al Qaeda will multiply like rabbits and take control of Iraq. Once they control Iraq they would be able to launch attacks against the US mainland. Well, low and behold, the Army war gamed the scenario in which the US leaves and Al Qaeda does not set up a safe haven. They are in fact driven out. Again, these are the best military minds, these are the generals that President Bush keeps telling us that he is listening to. Basically, the most likely outcome if we leave would be more bloodshed and Iraq breaking into 3 countries.
If U.S. combat forces withdraw from Iraq in the near future, three developments would be likely to unfold. Majority Shiites would drive Sunnis out of ethnically mixed areas west to Anbar province. Southern Iraq would erupt in civil war between Shiite groups. And the Kurdish north would solidify its borders and invite a U.S. troop presence there. In short, Iraq would effectively become three separate nations.
That was the conclusion reached in recent “war games” exercises conducted for the U.S. military by retired Marine Col. Gary Anderson. “I honestly don’t think it will be apocalyptic,” said Anderson, who has served in Iraq and now works for a major defense contractor. But “it will be ugly.” (more…)