Iran

We have joined Israel in attacking nuclear facilities in Iran. To understand what’s happening, we need to understand the history between the US and Iran. We have been spitting in Iran’s Fruit Loops since the early 1950s. We helped overthrow their duly elected government back in the mid-50s.

The Immediate Aftermath of the Revolution (1979-1981):

• 1979 Iranian Revolution: The overthrow of the Shah and the establishment of an anti-Western Islamic Republic fundamentally altered the U.S.-Iran relationship.
• Iran Hostage Crisis (1979-1981): Radical Iranian students stormed the U.S. embassy in Tehran, taking 52 American diplomats and citizens hostage for 444 days. This event cemented the animosity between the two nations and led to the severance of diplomatic ties.
• Failed Rescue Mission (Operation Eagle Claw, 1980): A U.S. military attempt to rescue the hostages failed, resulting in the deaths of eight American servicemen.
• Algiers Accords (1981): The hostages were finally released just minutes after Ronald Reagan’s inauguration, under an agreement brokered by Algeria.

Years of Conflict and Proxy Wars (1980s-2000s):

• Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988): The U.S. provided support to Iraq, led by Saddam Hussein, during its war with Iran, even after evidence of Iraq’s use of chemical weapons emerged. This further fueled Iranian distrust of the U.S.
• Hezbollah Bombings (1983, 1996): Iran-backed Hezbollah carried out attacks against American targets, including the 1983 U.S. Embassy and Marine barracks bombings in Beirut, and the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing in Saudi Arabia.
• Iran-Contra Affair (mid-1980s): The Reagan administration secretly sold arms to Iran in an attempt to secure the release of American hostages held in Lebanon by Hezbollah, and used the proceeds to illegally fund Contra rebels in Nicaragua.
• Operation Praying Mantis (1988): The U.S. Navy launched a retaliatory attack against Iranian oil platforms and naval vessels after an Iranian mine damaged a U.S. frigate in the Persian Gulf.
• Shooting Down of Iran Air Flight 655 (1988): A U.S. Navy warship mistakenly shot down an Iranian passenger plane, killing all 290 people on board. The U.S. claimed it mistook the plane for an F-14 fighter jet, but Iran viewed it as an intentional act of aggression.
• U.S. Intensifies Sanctions (1990s): Under the George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton administrations, the U.S. increased sanctions against Iran, including a complete oil and trade embargo in 1995.
• “Mini Détente” (1998-2000): Secretary of State Madeleine Albright had high-level contact with Iran’s deputy foreign minister and acknowledged the U.S. role in the 1953 coup, leading to some limited lifting of sanctions.
• “Axis of Evil” Speech (2002): President George W. Bush included Iran in his “Axis of Evil” speech, along with Iraq and North Korea, further escalating tensions.
• Iraq War (2003): While the U.S. invaded Iraq, a shared enemy, Iran also backed Shiite militias in Iraq, some of which engaged in attacks on U.S. forces.

Nuclear Program and Shifting Dynamics (2000s-Present):

• Iranian Nuclear Program: Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear program became a central point of contention, leading to international sanctions and concerns about nuclear proliferation.
• U.S. “Maximum Pressure” Campaign: The Trump administration withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018 and reimposed stringent sanctions, aiming to cripple Iran’s economy and force it to renegotiate the nuclear deal and curb its regional activities.
• Killing of Qassem Soleimani (2020): A U.S. drone strike killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, a significant figure in Iran’s regional influence, leading to heightened tensions and Iranian retaliatory missile strikes on U.S. bases in Iraq.
• Ongoing Tensions: Relations remain strained due to Iran’s nuclear activities, its support for regional proxies, human rights concerns, and a lack of direct diplomatic channels. Periodically, there are talks or indirect negotiations, particularly concerning the nuclear program and prisoner exchanges.

I have no idea what the future holds. I feel very confident that this is not over. Iran is likely to devise a countermeasure. I think that they are going to feel compelled to strike us on our mainland. I hope that I’m wrong.

Umm. Let’s think about this for just a second. Suppose that Trump has done exactly what he has said he has done. He has knocked out Iran’s nuclear program. How long would it take to rebuild? This is not the 1940s, when scientists were undertaking groundbreaking experiments that had never been attempted before. This is 2025. The theory behind making a nuclear weapon is well established. So you need to have desire, money, time, scientists, and material. Iran, it appears, has decided that it wants a nuclear bomb. They have the money. Time is not a problem. They can buy scientists with expertise from North Korea or China. Finally, Iran can get the basic material necessary to make a nuclear weapon. It seems to me that we may have set Iran back by 2 – 5 years at most.

Finally, where is the intelligence? Did Iran have a nuclear weapon? Were they on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon?