Many of you know that I really love Brian’s blog, Advanced NFL Stats. Brian does some amazing things with numbers. I’m not sure where he gets his numbers, what statistical program he uses to squeeze out answers, but his information is sure intriguing. His basic premise is that football is just like baseball, that it can be broken down into numbers. So, he asks, who has had the best performance since 2000?
Michael Vick blew up the Redskins Monday night with 333 passing yards, 4 passing TDs, 80 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs, and no turnovers. It was an almost flawless individual performance from beginning to end, worth 29.4 Expected Points Added (EPA). How does it compare to the top individual performances since 2000?
Interesting that one of the games were losses for the top performer. Notice Aaron Rodgers’ WPA was only 0.11 in his 28.7 EPA game against Arizona in the playoffs last year. That was thanks to the strip-sack-TD to end the game in OT.
Wondering about the worst performance? That would belong to Dallas’ Anthony Wright, whose 31-0 loss at Tennessee was worth -36.3 EPA and -0.42 WPA. It was a Monday night game, broadcast on Christmas night. Wright went 5 for 20, totaling 35 yards. He was sacked 4 times for 26 yards of losses. That’s a net of 9 yards passing. Wright was intercepted twice, once for a TD. He fumbled 3 times and lost all 3, 1 of them returned for another TD.