In Iraq, I mean?

Those that want to paint a rosy picture of Iraq have always pointed to two areas that had been more stable, areas where normalcy was on the near horizon. The Shia-dominated south, largely patrolled by the British forces was on the mend, and the Kurdish north was another area where things were all peachy-keen. Well, the south has been less and less a model of civility as Shia infighting is on the rise and British troop withdrawals are moving forward. But at least we have the north..... right?

Au contraire, mon frere......

Turkish forces have been massing at the border, with the Turkish public, the Turkish military leaders and the leader of the main opposition political party in Turkey all itching to launch an invasion across the border into Iraq. The target? Kurdish separatist rebels of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The PKK desires a Kurdish homeland, and we keep hearing about the Iraqi part of that, but Turkey's southeastern provinces are also mainly Kurdish in population as well, and they are also part of the picture. Martial law has already been declared in three of those provinces because of fighting between the Turks and the PKK guerrillas.

The area has been under dispute over the last two decades and the death toll so far tops 40,000. PKK forces operate from bases in northern Iraq and strike at Turkish military troops in Turkey. Turkish leaders claim that not only are the U.S. forces not helping to control these activities by the PKK, but that they may actually be aiding the rebel group.

From an article on Eurasianet comes this excerpt:

"Since 2004, Turkey has warned that it will go after the PKK in northern Iraq if its warnings are not heeded. Despite repeated warnings by the United States for Turkey not to carry out unilateral military actions in northern Iraq, recent indications suggest that Ankara is on the verge of actually doing just that. With thousands of Turkish troops amassed along Iraq’s border, a major military operation seems imminent.

On June 30, the Turkish daily "Radikal" reported that Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul warned that a military plan was in place to invade northern Iraq if U.S. or Iraqi forces failed to move against the PKK bases there. While details of the plan were not known, it is believed the Turkish military might try to establish a buffer zone in northern Iraq to curb the rebels’ movements."

American Defense Secretary Robert Gates has said that the U.S. is strongly opposed to unilateral Turkish action, because apparently the doctrine of preemptive war is only for Americans to use. Tough spot this is, since the American refusal to heed Turkish calls to attack the PKK is now a main cause of anti-Americanism in Turkey. Resources are spread so thin already, that we can't send military troops to police yet another area, and our political capital is so thin already that we can't afford to alienate the Iraqi Kurds by cracking down on the PKK guerrillas.

Turkish patience is wearing thin and the prelude to an invasion may be already underway. Turkish general elections are approaching on July 22, and the opposition party has been hammering Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan for failing to move against the rebels. Erdogan's cabinet is scheduled to have a final pre-election meeting on Monday, July 9, and the Eurasianet article above speculates that the cabinet could give a green light for military action at that time.

Just when you thought things couldn't get worse.