• Yesterday, Romper Room (this used to be an old kid show that aired in the mid-'50s thru the mid-'90's, but I like it has a nickname for the mainstream media) spent a lot of time talking about the Ames straw poll in Iowa. First of all, several things about the Ames straw poll are clear. This straw poll sort of predicts who's going to win the Iowa caucus. It has approximately a 58% predicting power. Winning Iowa does not guarantee winning the national nomination. So, I guess, congratulations are in order for Michele Bachmann. She had a narrow victory in the straw poll over Ron Paul.

From CNN:

1. Michele Bachmann: 4823 votes
2. Ron Paul: 4671
3. Tim Pawlenty: 2293
4. Rick Santorum: 1657
5. Herman Cain: 1456
6. Mitt Romney: 567
7. Newt Gingrich: 385
8. Jon Huntsman 69
9. Thaddeus McCotter: 35

Tim Pawlenty throws in the towel

• Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty was a longshot, to say the least. He had a plainness that is common in the Midwest. Unfortunately, it makes it hard for you to get noticed. He's been polling terribly in national polls and did terrible in the Ames straw poll. Remember that he's been running for president for more than two years. He simply never got traction because he never seemed to go after the Tea Party vote. He tried to present himself as sane and rational. In the Republican debate, he went after Michele Bachmann (the opposite of sane and rational). He tried to point out her obvious hypocrisy but it was too little, too late. He is out of money. His campaign is out of steam and he has thrown in the towel.
• Finally, the Ames straw poll does tell us a little bit about the Republican field. There are several candidates who are not getting any traction whatsoever. Rick Santorum, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich all together barely broke 20%. Newt Gingrich has spent a lot of time in Iowa and for him to come out with 2.3% of the vote is awful. I don't think he's running for president. I don't think he is running for vice president. I think he's running to convince Republican donors that he is still relevant. I have no idea why Rick Santorum is running. He's going to do poorly in Iowa. Can he do better in New Hampshire? Can he do better in the bellwether state, South Carolina? As long as Michele Bachmann remains in the race, I don't see how Rick Santorum is going to get any traction. They're both scrambling after the far right and the Tea Party. She grabs the spotlight, which means that he is left standing in the dark. It seems to me that Herman Cain is running for 2016. I think he will stay in the race in spite of his poor showing. I suspect that he will limp through New Hampshire and South Carolina. He will begin to spend more more of his own money. When you're rich, you can do a practice run for the White House that costs you $5-$10 million.
• Texas Governor Rick Perry has gotten into the race. He announced in the friendly southern state of South Carolina. While his speech was a yawn-fest (see video below), Rick Perry has proven to be a savvy politician in Texas. Whether you like him or not, whether you think that he is stupid or not, this guy knows how to press the flesh. Popular Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson tried to charm Texas voters into voting for her and not Rick Perry in the last gubernatorial election and well, Rick Perry is still governor. I think that Rick Perry has positioned himself as friendly with the Tea Party crowd and also friendly with the Republican establishment. This should make Michele Bachmann and Mitt Romney extremely nervous.

This is a video of Rick Perry announcing that he's running for president. Warning, he seems to have the ability to link one cliché after another, after another, effortlessly. If you seize after you heard more than three or four clichés in a row, take your medication before watching this video:

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Let me say this, there's been some discussion in the media (here, here and here) about some fallout between Rick Perry and George W. Bush. I don't know whether there has or hasn't been a fallout. I do know that Rick Perry owes his political career to George W. Bush. I do know that Rick Perry is using the George W. Bush playbook for politics. When George W. Bush lost his election for the House of Representatives, his take-home lesson was never to let anyone out "God" him. Since that election, George W. Bush never lost the evangelical Christians. Rick Perry's prayer rally in Houston, Texas was his attempt to shore up the evangelical Christian vote. He tried to make the prayer rally about Christianity. He tried to appear nonpartisan. Rick Perry is using George W. Bush's political playbook. In the media, he's going to try to distance himself from the former president. In reality, he has completely and totally embraced his philosophy. Why shouldn't he? His philosophy continues to work, at least in Texas.